Thursday 26 November 2009

F1 tips: factors, successes and mistakes

There is a big rule change coming in the 2010 season, namely that there will be no refuelling. This will prove challenging for me as my main approach to betting on the sport was based on fuel loads.

As there’s some time (about three and a half months) between now and the next season I thought it’d be useful to go over what factors I considered when making bets, why some long shots came in and what preventable mistakes I made.

Firstly, factors. Number one was fuel load, but that’s not an issue next season, nor is KERS, which I rather liked. Temperature is another very important one. Different cars and different drivers find it easier or harder to get their tyres up to speed. Not enough heat and you lose grip, which isn’t handy when you’re going at 180mph. However, too much heat and you ruin your tyres, losing grip and possibly needing a new set. Barrichello is good at managing his tyres. Button is silky smooth, so he’ll never shred them, but during the latter half of the season he really struggled to get any temperature into them. By contrast Hamilton is a ragged edge driver, which means he’s prone to punctures. It’ll be fun to see if McLaren’s new car will be able to accommodate the utterly different nature of their drivers in this regard.

Next up is the fact that the gap between the teams last season was small enough that at different circuits any one of about four teams (Ferrari, McLaren, Brawn and Red Bull) had a chance of victory, and even Force India came from nowhere to get a second place. Favourites are often overrated, creating value lower down the grid. However, this may be trickier next year due to the lack of fuel stops.

For next season, overtaking ability will prove crucial. Hamilton is a good overtaker, and Button and Vettel are also. I believe that the double-diffuser that gave Brawn such an advantage in speed had a secondary, less remarked upon, bonus which was that it made the air behind it dirtier (ie slowed down cars that got very close behind), making overtaking them harder. I think that they’ve altered the aerodynamic rules somewhat to try and prevent that in 2010.

Last one is obvious, but worth mentioning: driver. I deliberately argued against Kovalainen for the win at one race or another, despite an excellent grid position and five tons of fuel because he simply isn’t a race winner. Whether Rosberg is we’ll find out next season. Alonso’s eminently reliable, Vettel can sometimes put in a Schumacheresque performance and was the most consistent qualifier (more important in 2010 than 2009). Hamilton can overtake, and is very fast. These three are the best in my view, with Rosberg a possible contender, Webber an also-ran and Button unlikely, in my view, to retain his crown.

Also, Bruno Senna will be racing in 2010. Word is he’s not too bad a driver.

Now, successes:
My 70/1 Button tip (which I didn’t back myself) might look brilliant (and it was), but it was also more obvious than a transvestite with a beard. I just checked the pre-season time trial stats. The Brawn was fast as hell. Simple as that.

Monza was nice, backed both Brawns for podiums (podia?) at longer than evens, and Barrichello to win at 7/1 (two failed bets as well). This was based simply on them having good fuel and being underrated due to performing badly in previous races. A past race is not guaranteed to be a predictor of a future one, after all.

Mistakes:
I backed Raikonnen at Spa (and he won), but got too attached to the idea of him winning and subsequently backed him too often. Drivers will have peaks and dips in form, and some circuits just won’t suit them. It’s also worth considering whether the car that season will stay in development, or whether they’ve shifted the R&D to the next season’s car.

I also advocate laying bets when possible as in F1 anything can happen (and quite often does). Better safe than sorry.

Hmm, was rather hoping I’d have more insight into long shots that came in and serial mistakes, but I do think those are the only ones lessons can be drawn from. Hopefully the next season’s driver lineup will be known soon, and the full rules as well.

For the record, I’ve put a pittance on Massa at 16/1 (he’s not 4x worse than Alonso who’s about 4/1) and looking for Rosberg at 14/1 to be matched (the Mercedes may be tasty). I intend to make larger bets once more information is known.

Morris Dancer

Thursday 19 November 2009

The Welsh Marginals - part 2

Today - mid and west Wales. This post might be considered a 'tamaid i aros pryd', a tasty morsel to keep us going before we tuck into the marginals of the south. But although there aren't many seats up for grabs here, there are some pretty interesting and unique ones.
As in the north, only a couple can be regarded as truly safe. Despite some unfortunate publicity over expenses, the Conservatives won't be too worried about Preseli Pembrokeshire. Likewise Plaid in East Carmarthenshire. Despite Adam Price's imminent sideways career move, the party has a 'deep bench' here. Those up for the nomination include a former party chairman in Marc Phillips and a future star in Jonathan Edwards. I know this seat has swung Labour against the trend once before (1979) but they have serious candidate problems and you'd be a brave punter to back them.

Brecon & Radnor
A large rural seat that's been marginal for over 20 years. The Lib Dems nearly lost it when Richard Livsey retired, but Roger Williams (despite his own party activists on Lib Dem Voice regularly voting him the party's lowest-profile frontbencher) has built up a decent majority. This seat represents a fairly obvious Conservative target, and they have a credible and experienced candidate in Suzy Davies. But the Lib Dems have decent electoral form here. Their Welsh leader, Kirsty Williams, always gets good majorities in assembly elections, they did pretty well in the last set of council elections, and although they lost here in the Euros the Lib Dems' percentage of the vote was way higher than in Montgomery or Ceredigion. A Tory tidal-wave may see this one fall, but on balance I think the Lib Dems will hold it.

Carmarthen West & South Pembs
The assembly election here was remarkably tight three-way split, resulting in a Conservative gain. In the context of a Westminster election, there's nothing to suggest that the Tories shouldn't be hot favourites, despite some concerns over the Countryside Alliance's influence over the local association. Carmarthen town may have a Tory MP for the first time since the 1860s, and Labour may struggle to hold off Plaid for second.

Ceredigion
There's much I could write about the fascinating LD-Plaid marginal of Ceredigion, but seeing as I'm an activist here I'm sure you'll understand if I keep my thoughts to myself. Just to mention that if you reckon you know how us Cardis are going to vote, there are a wide range of bookmakers ready to offer odds.

Llanelli
Now here's a seat many people will be keeping their eye on. Back in the days of Jim Griffiths this was one of Labour's safest seats in the whole of Britain. Now, Plaid comfortably hold the assembly seat, Labour's local election results have been truly appalling, and they face a credible challenge from Dr. Myfanwy Davies, who many believe to be one of the brightest emerging stars in Welsh politics. So there are many factors pointing in Plaid's direction, but for Labour to lose Llanelli in a high-turnout election would be a big, big deal. The PolHome marginals poll had it - just - staying Labour. Too close to call.

Montgomery
Ah, the adopted home of publicity-shy Lembit Opik. Should a seat with a majority of 7000 really be considered marginal? I hear conflicting reports almost daily. Firstly, let's put one myth to bed. Montomeryshire folk are not the bible-bashing rural puritans that some commentators assume, and generally aren't morally appalled at Lembit. What you might find, though, is that some find his lifestyle rather cringe-inducing in an uncle-dancing-at-a-disco kind of a way. The Conservatives' choice of candidate is what makes this seat really interesting. Glyn Davies may have fought the seat before, but since then he's risen to prominence as an AM highly respected on all sides. Losing his list seat by accident in 2007 enabled him to refocus his energies on unseating Opik. As in many places, the Lib Dems borrow lots of tactical votes here, and it'll be much more difficult to persuade Plaid and Labour voters to back the Lib Dems if the 'Tory bogeyman' is a moderate, pro-devolution conservative like Glyn. Recent electoral form is interesting. In 2007, there were rumours that the Lib Dems were in trouble, but Mick Bates AM held on fairly comfortably. But on the regional list vote (in which Glyn Davies was a candidate) the Conservatives won. 2008 gave further good news for the Tories, with the only 2 council wards staying yellow and 6 new dashes of blue on the map - 3 in the rural north and, more significantly, 3 in Newtown. In 2009 the Lib Dems finished 3rd here in the Euros, although it's true that Euro elections are particularly poor predictors of Lib Dem strength. Last month's YouGov Welsh poll had the Lib Dems doing badly in mid Wales, but how much trust can you really place in those regional sub-samples?
I'm still not wholly convinced by the Conservative challenge here. Will Tory activists flock to support a candidate like Glyn? Will UKIP (who have a decent recent record here) harm Davies's chances? And of course, just the size of that majority. But having sat on the fence in Llanelli I suppose I'd better make a bold prediction here. Erm,, hum,, er,,,
Conservative gain?

By the way, for anyone interested in prospects for the Welsh Labour leadership or for a future referendum on increased assembly powers, there is some new polling data out, which is summarised by Betsan Powys. (it's wise to ignore the comments section on Betsan's blog; it's home to Welsh politics's weirdest wing-nuts)

Tuesday 17 November 2009

How will the next general election night be broadcasted?

We all know election nights can be an interesting night for politicos across the world, many including me still remember the interest that was shown by us the general public in the UK in the election night of the Presidential election, it's this mood of watching election nights that has got me thinking.

I know PB ran an election night thread at the last general election, the problem is at the time PB wasn't as popular as it is today and if Mike was to run another thread like that, it just wouldn't give the lurkers to the site the news and info that they need. So what do we do?

How about Mike runs an online radio stream or video stream? We could have a sort of PB politics programme on election night, with call in features, reports from info gathered via twitter, etc. Wouldn't that be a way to really broadcast election night from PB to all the members of the parish and lurkers who spend time over at the site?

How about PB TV? Anything is possible, I personally think we all need to put our thinking caps on and think about a way for the world to see the blogosphere report the election results as they break. Although I like many will be at counts supporting candidates who I will work restlessly to get elected, many PBers don't back a certain political party or will not be backing a candidate, hence them having an easy election day compared to people like myself.

Poll Time

Cinders Shall Go To The Ball

It’s pantomine time in Norfolk and next week sees Cinderella take to the stage at Swanton Morley Village Hall, not far from Swaffham. The publicity blurb promises ‘a few twists’ but I wonder if they’ll have learned a few things from another production that’s just ended a three-week run just down the road.

The South West Norfolk Selection Saga has had the lot in a laugh-a-minute production that’s gripped the nation in the last few weeks.

Elizabeth Truss has taken the leading role as Cinders. But no traditional Panto would be complete without the baddie, Norfolk’s very own Baron Hardup – Sir Jeremy Bagge.

The Ugly Sisters were played by local Party Agent Ian Sherwood and Deputy Chairman, former CCHQ Insider, Hugh Culver who hilariously tripped-up at every opportunity.

Additional comedy material was provided by Tweedle-dum & Tweedle-dee Shaun Lowthorpe and Chris Fisher from the Eastern Daily Press [EDP], who kept prodding and aggravating the chorus line dressed in earthy ‘taliban’ garb when the laughter started to peter-out.

After a intermission caused by the Glasgow North East by-election, all things have to come to a happy ending and in traditional style, Cinder’s own fairy Godmother, Baroness Gillian Shephard, former S W Norfolk MP who lives just a few hundred yards away, appeared in a puff of smoke to wave her magic wand to mark the end of the proceedings. Hurrah, Cinders shall go to the Ball after all! No wonder the theatre producer Cameron [aka Mackintosh?] is happy. He’ll be packing ‘em in for weeks after this show. It’s a winner.

As regular readers will know, there’s been a lot going on in Norfolk Politics this year and as Bunnco – Your Man On The Spot, I hope I’ve been able to put an amusing slant on the serious business of politics. So what lessons have I learned from this?

The Pantomime performed in Swaffham was really just a side-show to a battle between the reformers and traditionalists in the party. And in the battle of wills, it’s Cameron who has been the winner. To have knocked-off the Europe Issue and taken-on the reactionaries and come-out ahead in two short weeks is probably why The Guardian today has begrudgingly recognised that Cameron has what it takes.

As I reported twice during the performance, this issue was never really about Miss Truss or her previous behaviour, the real story was about a monumental foul-up in communications between CCHQ and the local party which became a proxy war between modernisers and traditionalists inflamed by metropolitan types who couldn’t resist lampooning Norfolk with rural stereotypes.

It’s easy to forget that the backdrop for the whole affair was some unguarded comments by Cameron at The Speaker’s Conference last month, when he appeared to give a commitment to All Women Shortlists [AWS], an incendiary issue amongst activists.

The comments were prompted by the realisation that most of the recent candidate adoptions had been predominantly male and there was a desire to achieve a better gender balance amongst PPCs. As the media pack latched onto the issue, CCHQ was trying to get off the hook as the news arrived that Truss had been selected from a mixed shortlist.

If South West Norfolk had choosen a woman of its own free will with over 50% on the first ballot, perhaps the panic over AWS was unnecessary after all. And if she was telegenic and well-connected with the party, well that was a bonus. As I reported at the time – you could hear the champagne corks popping on Millbank.

But in Act Two the scene change was botched as it became clear that someone had been less than frank with the local association. The local association had been somewhat naive in taking official assurances at face value. Following the Mail on Sunday ‘Cameron Cutie’ story, simmering indignation was exacerbated by the excessive secrecy in the candidate short listing, the lack of due-diligence following that and, reportedly a less-than-even-handed set of questions to the candidates at the selection meeting, whilst the regular Chairman, the combative David Hills, was sunning himself on a cruise ship off Hong Kong. The ‘Ugly Sisters’ must surely take the blame here for mishandling the issue on the ground.

At this point, the Association became ham-strung by its own rules, which required two week’s notice of a general meeting of members. The option of re-running the selection as an open primary was vetoed by the Regions Top Tory and in the fortnight’s vacuum, the local party’s hands were tied whilst the blogosphere lined-up to lampoon the locals.

Having been aware of the story in advance but deciding not to run it, the EDP then began to play catch-up in its own back-yard as it made it up for lost-time with a series of alternately positive and negative stories from tweedle-dee and tweedle-dum on the news desk. If the EDP couldn’t organise its editorial line, no wonder the national press were given a free-hand and when old Etonian Sir Jeremy Bagge Bt. popped-up as Baron Hardup complete with turban, the story became irresistible.

On November 7th. I posted a PB2 Article including the following passage.

But as Bunnco – your man on the spot, my view is that this is increasingly seen as a problem, not in Norfolk, but caused by some ham-fisted interference in London. Someone down in the smoke was less than frank with the local association. Today’s revelations [EDP’s reports of Truss’ behaviour in Calder Valley in 2005] suggest that there was central subterfuge and that the local association, and in fairness, Truss have been caught in the resultant cross fire.

Subsequent events have proved that analysis to be spot-on. A cosy arrangement between the metropolitan bloggers and the central press operation had initially deflected public opinion against the Norfolk locals, accusing them of excessive sexual prurience coupled with misogynistic prejudice. Playing to the rural stereotype image makes for good copy but disguised the fact that the root cause of the whole farrago lay in London’s insensitivity to local associations and excessive secrecy over selection procedures.

Perhaps this central truth would have remained obscured had ‘Open Letters’ from Tim Montgomerie on ConHome not inflamed local resistance. I’m reminded of the letter that the Guardian sent to voters in Iowa during the 2004 Presidential Election imploring them to vote for Gore. It backfired spectacularly and might have done in South West Norfolk too had Cameron not had the enormous luck to find himself pitched against fellow Old-Etonian Sir Jeremy Bagge, who played the Village Idiot role to perfection. Who says that Old Etonians have all the sway in party?

Once more, the media narrative moved on. And all the time, Liz Truss was mute as the storm swirled around her, a pawn in a proxy war for the soul of the party. It wasn’t her fault that all the experts fouled-it-up.

You know the rest but what lessons can we learn?

1. Cameron has shown that he was right to stick to his guns. It’s all very well wanting to lead the Country but in order to do that you need to lead your party. And it’s the latter that’s actually a lot more difficult than the former. The South West Norfolk saga has given Cameron the authority he needs to run the Party but by the same token, Cameron has realised that it cannot take the Party from which his mandate flows entirely for granted. There’s been a re-balancing of authority and both sides will want to take the moral high ground but in reality Cameron's the one who's come out on top with a candidate with unrivalled name recognition.

2. Central Office will have learned from this that they need to be less dogmatic about candidate selection. No doubt they’ll still wish to promote some ‘A’-listers but there needs to be smatterings of local candidates mixed-in, if only to show them up in the final selection. He doesn't now need the All Woman Shortlists. The lessons learned centrally will now be used to defuse a smoking timebomb in Central Suffolk and in other constituencies.

3. For the Tories, we’ll see a new ‘dividing line’ against Labour with more Open Primaries to defuse the secrecy problems and to flush-out the Sir Bufton Tuftons. In the coming months, it will be Labour on the back-foot as they impose fixed lists on their own local parties.

4. But most of all, Liz Truss has come through this. A lesser woman would have buckled and gone elsewhere. But she’s stuck her ground. She’s one helluva tough cookie. To have stuck this for two weeks when the entire media has laid-out the details of previous peccadilloes and to maintain the support of her family, shows mental toughness, sheer grit and determination.

Perhaps EDP Political Correspondent was right when he melted last week “If she can survive the next week and a bit, then it strikes me she can get through anything, and my sense is that people will warm to her for doing so. I've seen enough to believe she deserves the chance to be an MP. But what I really wonder is: do the Tories in South West Norfolk deserve her?"”.

What Norfolk needs is a tough voice. Whether they knew it when they selected her two weeks ago, they should do so now. Liz Truss. One to Watch. Oh yes she is.

Bunnco - Your Man on The Spot

Traditional Cinderella Pantomime with a few twists. Written and performed by Estrella Productions Amateur dramatics group. Friday 27th and Saturday 28th November 2009. Doors open 7pm, Curtain up 7.30pm. Swanton Morley Village Hall, Swanton Morley, Nr Dereham Adults £4, Children under 16 £2

Saturday 14 November 2009

2009 Season Review

The 2009 season of Formula One was one of ups and downs, and surprises. The plethora of rule changes allowed three teams (amongst them Brawn) to get the jump on their rivals early on with the double diffuser. Honda rose from the ashes as the aforementioned Brawn and dominated the first half of the season, with Button building up what transpired to be an unassailable lead from the first seven races, six of which he won.

It’s also well worth mentioning the incredible second place Fisichella achieved for Force India at Spa, and the surprising talent of Kobayashi, who took over from Glock for the last two races.

In the second half of the season Hamilton was the best driver, missing out on a decent Yas Marina finish due to a rare reliability failure from his car. This allowed Vettel (who may have won anyway) to easily score a victory, his fourth of the season.

Vettel was both the most and least reliable driver. He’s the only chap who triumphed throughout the season, with wins from China (third race) right through to the final one in Abu Dhabi. He also suffered most from unreliability, partly his fault (he was in a 50/50 needless collision with Kubica in Australia) and partly down to his car (his engines kept exploding). To finish second, 11 points behind Button, was a phenomenal achievement.

Did Button deserve the title? I had my doubts through most of the latter half of the season. However, Brazil’s Interlagos circuit once again provided a fantastic race, and Button seized the opportunity to scythe through the field, finishing 5th having started 14th. Given the enormous pressure Barrichello had put him under by qualifying in pole position that was a great drive by Button, and enough to convince me he deserved the title (and, as you’ll all be aware, the approval of an anonymous internet Morris Dancer is what all F1 drivers truly crave).

Also at Interlagos, Vettel started 16th and finished 4th. His race was ruined by poor qualifying (mostly due to bad luck, he had traffic issues during the optimum time window) and even a brilliant drive couldn’t continue his title hopes.

I feel some measure of pity for Barrichello. His dire luck at his home track continued, and he slipped from 1st to 8th. Earlier in the season a strategic error by Brawn cost him a victory.

This was a very exciting season. We had six race winners, and back-to-back English world champions for the first time ever, and back-to-back British Constructors’ winners. A number of the races, most obviously Spa, Monza and Interlagos, were great to watch.

I really hope Silverstone can host the British GP next year. It would be a travesty if the nation that provides so many of the top class engineers, drivers and fans of the sport were to be denied its rightful place on the F1 calendar.

Anyway, that concludes my brief review of the F1 season. I hope to post a preview of the 2010 season when the driver lineups and rule changes are known, perhaps with the odd tip here and there, if I spot anything of value.

Thanks to all those who took the time to read my fortnightly previews/reviews and who commented on them.

Morris Dancer

Friday 13 November 2009

Easterross- Scottish Predictions

Following on from the Glasgow North East by-election and the large majority Labour achieved over the SNP, I thought revising earlier predictions might be the order of the day.

In the table below I list all seats fought in 2005, the winner (by-elections since shown as *) and runner-up, winner at Holyrood in 2007 (where possible and if 2 seats both winners) and the Easterross 1st and 2nd choice predictions for the General Election.

Constituency

Name

2005 Winner

2005 Runner Up

Holyrood 2007

2010 Predicted 1st choice

2010 Predicted 2nd choice

Orkney and Shetland

SLD Hold

Lab

SLD Hold

SLD Hold

SLD Hold

Western Isles

SNP Hold

Lab

SNP Hold

SNP Hold

SNP Hold

Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross

SLD Hold

Lab

SLD Hold

SLD Hold

SLD Hold

Ross, Skye and Lochaber

SLD Hold

Lab

SLD Hold

SLD Hold

SLD Hold

Inverness, Nairn etc

SLD Gain

Lab

SNP Hold

SLD Hold

SNP Gain

Argyll

SLD Hold

Con

SNP Gain

Con Gain

SNP Gain

Moray

SNP Hold

Lab

SNP Hold

SNP Hold

SNP Hold

Gordon

SLD Hold

Lab

SNP Gain

SLD Hold

SNP Gain

Banff and Buchan

SNP Hold

Con

SNP Hold

SNP Hold

SNP Hold

West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

SLD Hold

Con

SLD Hold

SLD Hold

Con Gain

Aberdeen North

Lab Hold

SLD

SNP & Lab Holds

Lab Hold

SNP Gain

Aberdeen South

Lab Hold

SLD

Lab/ SLD Hold

Lab Hold

Con Gain

Angus

SNP Hold

Con

SNP Hold

SNP Hold

Con Gain

Dundee East

SNP Hold

Lab

SNP Hold

SNP Hold

SNP Hold

Dundee West

Lab Hold

SNP

SNP Gain

SNP Gain

SNP Gain

Dunfermline and W Fife *

Lab Hold *

SLD

SLD Gain

Lab Hold *

SLD Gain *

Fife North-East

SLD Hold

Con

SLD Hold

SLD Hold

SLD Hold

Perth and N Perthshire

SNP Hold

Con

SNP Hold

SNP Hold

Con Gain

Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath

Lab Hold

SNP

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Glenrothes *

Lab Hold *

SNP

SNP Gain

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Ochil and South Perthshire

Lab Hold

SNP

SNP Hold

SNP Gain

Lab Hold

Stirling

Lab Hold

Con

SNP Gain

Lab Hold

Con Gain

Airdrie and Shotts

Lab Hold

SNP

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Coatbridge, Chryston etc

Lab Hold

SNP

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Cumbernauld etc

Lab Hold

SNP

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

East Kilbride etc

Lab Hold

SNP

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Falkirk

Lab Hold

SNP

SNP Gain/ Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Motherwell and Wishaw

Lab Hold

SNP

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lanark and Hamilton East

Lab Hold

SNP

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Kilmarnock and Loudoun

Lab Hold

SNP

SNP Gain

SNP Gain

Lab Hold

Glasgow Central

Lab Hold

SNP

Lab Hold/ SNP Gain

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Glasgow East *

Lab Hold *

SNP

Lab Hold

Lab Hold *

SNP Gain *

Glasgow North

Lab Hold

SLD

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

SNP Gain

Glasgow North- East *

Speak Hold *

SNP

Lab Hold

Lab Gain *

Lab Gain *

Glasgow North- West

Lab Hold

SLD

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Glasgow South

Lab Hold

SLD

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Glasgow South- West

Lab Hold

SNP

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Rutherglen and Hamilton West

Lab Hold

SLD

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Dunbartonshire East

SLD Gain

Lab

Lab Gain

Lab Gain

SLD Hold

Dunbartonshire West

Lab Hold

SNP

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Renfrewshire East

Lab Hold

Con

Lab Hold

Con Gain

Lab Hold

Paisley and Renfrewshire North

Lab Hold

SNP

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Paisley and Renfrewshire South

Lab Hold

SLD

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Inverclyde

Lab Hold

SNP

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Ayrshire N & Arran

Lab Hold

Con

Lab Hold/ SNP Gain

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Ayrshire Central

Lab Hold

Con

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock

Lab Hold

Con

Lab & Con Holds

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Dumfries & Galloway

Lab Gain

Con

Lab & Con Holds

Con Gain

Con Gain

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale etc

Con Gain

Lab

Lab Hold

Con Hold

Con Hold

Berwickshire, Roxburgh etc

SLD Hold

Con

SLD Hold/ Con Gain

Con Gain

SLD Hold

East Lothian

Lab Hold

SLD

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Edinburgh East

Lab Hold

SLD

SNP Gain/ Lab Hold

Lab Hold

SNP Gain

Edinburgh North & Leith

Lab Hold

SLD

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Con Gain

Edinburgh South

Lab Hold

SLD

SLD Hold

Con Gain

SLD Gain

Edinburgh South- West

Lab Hold

Con

Con Hold

Con Gain

Lab Hold

Edinburgh West

SLD Hold

Con

SLD Hold

SLD Hold

SLD Hold

Linlithgow & East Falkirk

Lab Hold

SNP

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Livingston *

Lab Hold *

SNP

SNP Gain

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Midlothian

Lab Hold

SLD

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Lab Hold

Summarising the above, in my first set of likely outcomes we would see Labour 35, Conservative 7, Scottish Liberal Democrat 8 and SNP 9, very much in line with the recent Baxter model summary where polls are Labour 29, SNP 27, Conservative 20 and Scottish Liberal Democrat 15.

In my second set of outcomes, those in which I suggest an alternative winner if not the same party twice, we would see Labour 30, Conservative 8, Scottish Liberal Democrat 9 and SNP 12.